What Next?

49% of us was enough to elect a person with a cult following and little to recommend him, otherwise.

The Issues

The Economy
Polls show that Americans rank the economy as their most important issue. The economy is a little complicated and frankly seems beyond the average citizen to measure. Experts in the “dismal science” give the economy high marks but 52% of the citizens disagree.
Tariffs are coming – what will this do?  It places a surcharge on stuff we buy and creates a marketplace for exclusions putting Trump in a position to help friends and punish enemies. With a tariff exclusion you have an advantage over your rivals who are without. 
Tariffs reduce productivity  by creating a protected domestic market, stifle competition and discourage innovation.
Abortion
This is an unpleasant discussion for everybody. Of course, if you think abortion is murder, you are opposed. For the rest, it is personal and not something that the government should be managing.
Since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022 the abortion decision has been pushed to the states. This creates a crazy quilt of legislation and presents real hardship and danger for many. Results of 2024’s 11 abortion measures were mixed. Two states rejected attempts to establish a state constitutional right to abortion. Voters in the remaining states decided in favor of abortion-rights policies.
Florida’s Amendment 4 is the first abortion-related measure to be decided in favor of anti-abortion proponents since Roe was overturned. A majority (57%) voted to protect abortion rights but, it needed 60%.
South Dakota’s measure seeking to establish a right to abortion failed.
Colorado’s measure, passed with 60.9% approval. Voters in Arizona, Colorado, Maryland, Missouri, Montana and Nevada made decisions to establish rights to abortion. Nebraska chose between 2 competing measures.
Immigration
During his campaign, Trump promised to deport unauthorized migrants, of which there are around 11 million in the US, according to the Center for Migration Studies. Trump also promised to ban some refugees and reinstate travel bans he implemented in his first term, which could restrict immigration flows.
Trump’s plan for a sweeping immigration crackdown involving mass deportations has been called inflationary, but economists say it could exacerbate another problem America faces: an aging population. Immigration is one solution to Americans having fewer kids. A drastic disruption in immigration could result in a larger population of older people and a smaller workforce.
International Relations
In his first term, Trump failed in his efforts to achieve successful agreements with China, Iran and North Korea. And in the four years since he left the Oval Office, the world has moved on, changing in ways that mean he faces a much harsher international environment than last time, an environment that makes it unlikely that even the wars in Ukraine and the Mideast, which have exhausted all sides, will end anytime soon.
Russia
Trump said he’d end the war “in 24 hours,” declaring a cease-fire on the current front lines and then striking a deal in which Ukraine gives up some territory , and future NATO membership, in return for peace. But Putin is massing troops and firing bigger missiles and showing no signs of being ready for peace.
Israel
When it comes to Israel’s two-front war in Gaza and Lebanon, Trump has told both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and senior negotiators in Qatar that he supports Netanyahu’s military plans but wants to see him “wrap things up” by the time Trump is inaugurated on Jan. 20, 2025. The October 7 attack by Hamas and the successful military campaigns against Hamas and Hezbollah have strengthened Netanyahu’s political support and made him more able to resist U.S. pressure.
Iran
The problem for Trump is that Tehran is eager to go nuclear. In recent months, its conventional deterrence suffered a catastrophic failure against Israel, with the Israelis virtually wiping out the top leadership of its proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas, including conducting strikes inside Iran. Iran is now far closer to a nuclear weapon than it was in 2018, when Trump repudiated the nuclear pact negotiated by his predecessor, Barack Obama.
North Korea
In his first term Trump embarked on what he described as a “special friendship” with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un, who reciprocated eagerly in a bizarre exchange of letters, calling their relationship “deep and special.”
Since those halcyon days Kim has advanced his nuclear and ICBM program dramatically. Kim has also embraced a new military alignment with Russia. The mutual defense agreement between Russia and North Korea, announced in June, means Kim is getting food aid, money and oil, and likely military technology.
China
It will be difficult to push China to play fair on trade and stand down on its threats to Taiwan, because Chinese President Xi Jinping is more of a hard-liner than he was four years ago. Trump will also be forced to confront the fact that the partnership between Beijing and Moscow, one built on their mutual opposition to U.S. influence, does not lend itself to his transactional approach to geopolitics.

1 comment

  • Excuse me while I vomit. This information is terrifying, and was such before the election. How I hope those who voted for T get to feel the error of their ways, but then, I and my loved ones and all sane, responsible, informed voters will have to share in the disastrous consequences of this sick election.

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