HardSchell Report

Needing Clothes, Food and Shelter

The UN projects that the world population will reach eight billion by November 15 this year and ten Billion by 2060!  Of course, projections are based on assumptions that may be wrong.

Replacement level fertility rate is 2.1 children per woman.  At this rate, population is at stasis from generation to generation. The exact rate varies from region to region and is affected by mortality rates and longevity. The current US fertility rate is 1.7 and Niger’s is 6.9.

The Wittgenstein Center for Demography and Global Human Capital has developed a model that looks at both historical trends and factors which affect birth rate change. Influencers for smaller families are education (in particular for women), urbanization, improved healthcare, and medium levels of migration. Their model, assuming rapid development, indicates a peak population of 8.7 billion by 2070 followed by slow decline.  

Two important questions about the world’s population growth are:

• The fertility pace in Africa:  the UN projects that Africa’s population will grow from 1.3 billion in 2022 to 3.9 billion by 2100. More than half of the world growth by 2050 is in Africa. Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to double lts current population.
  • The current African birth rate of 4.4 has declined slowly since 2019 from 4.38 and since 1950 from 6.55.
  • There is a high need for family planning help. Many women from age 15 to 49 wanting contraceptives do not have access. Maternal mortality is high and adolescent girls from the poorest households are much more likely to become pregnant and give birth than those who are more well off.
  • Fertility is a difficult population component to predict. Demographers must draw on the experiences of other regions to grasp Africa’s population patterns. Demographers have assumed that Africa’s fertility will follow the pattern of recent declines, particularly in Latin America, which were more rapid than Western Europe’s decline due to the diffusion of technology and knowledge.
  • The low priority of Africa’s population issues among the world’s wealthiest countries, combined with shortfalls in education, development, and contraception, may mean that the demographic transition in Africa will be slower than predicted.
• China’s recovery from one-child policy: China’s National Health Commission reported that total fertility rate had dropped to 1.3 in 2020, a rate well below the notional 2.1 needed to maintain population levels.
  • Other reports put the rate as low as 1.16, with catastrophic implications for economic growth, healthcare and living costs.
  • The UN’s population project forecasts a decline in China’s population – from a present high of 1.43 billion to around 1.3 billion by mid-century. The projection is apparently explained – by a dramatic decline in fertility rate, as well as increasing life expectancy. China relaxed its one-child per couple policy in 2014 in favor of a three-child policy in 2021. Despite the relaxed policy, China is in the midst of its weakest population growth in decades.

Whichever model proves more accurate, we need to face reality!

Renewables

The Earth provides renewable resources, such as timber, clean water and air, healthy soils and wild fish consumed for food. However, we are using those resources at almost twice the rate that the Earth can renew them. That rate has increased continually since the 1970s. At the current rate we will require three Earths to supply our needs by 2050.

Food and Water

More than 800 million people currently do not get enough food every day and 650 million are obese. People go hungry today because our global economic system distributes it unfairly. In fact, the number of people suffering from hunger has actually increased in recent years – due in part to development not keeping up with rapid population growth.