Looking at consensus presidential polling from FiveThirtyEight , Trump has a one percent lead over Biden, 41.5% vs 40.5%. In other words, the people responding to the polls are not excited about either 2024 presidential candidate.
These polls indicate that there is a significant bloc of voters, approaching 20%, who dislike both candidates. The 2024 election somewhat resembles the 2016 contest (when exit polls showed 18% disliked both candidates) more than the 2020 contest. |
Biden has lost favor because of persistent inflation, immigration problems, support of Israel during the invasion of Gaza and, of course, age.
Trump exudes a natural repulsion with childish behavior, bombastic falsehoods, and simplistic policies like immigration bans, trade sanctions and isolationism, but has his loyal “base”.
Who are these “Double Haters” and how will they vote in 2024?
This voter bloc could be a decisive factor in the election. It appears to be a broad range of constituents with a variety of issues and complaints. They resemble the general public demographically with a slight slant younger and more Hispanic, according to Politico.
Traditional Republicans
Disillusioned Trumpers like former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan and conservatives like former VP Mike Pence have been disenchanted with Trump’s behavior on Jan. 6 and continuing. Former GOP primary rivals Nikki Haley and Chris Christie are among prominent double haters. |
But they also have low confidence in Biden on a number of issues: foreign relations, economic policy, immigration, working with congress, and response to natural disasters according to Pew Research. |
Progressives:
Leftish activists and Arab-Americans blame Biden for “genocide” with his support of Israel in Gaza. |
Libertarians
Free speech advocates and DEI critics have money and influence and seem to be trending in favor of Trump. Elon Musk, who says he voted for Biden in 2020, is one of the president Biden’s loudest critics using his X platform to stir fears about illegal immigration and the “woke mind virus.” |
3rd Party
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has collected enough signatures to appear on three swing-state ballots, and could win as much as 38% of the double hater vote, according to a Monmouth poll |
The question facing both campaigns is: what will they do? Abstain, vote third party or hold their noses and vote the lesser of two hates?
…and there’s nothing we can do about it except hope they vote values. Of course, they won’t.